Commentary

A better quarantine pass system for Cebu City

Theoretically, because there are only 178k quarantine passes (QP), half of them odd and half of them even, at any given time during Monday to Saturday, the max allowed number of people outside their residences other than the APORs would be 178k / 2 = 89k.

What if, instead of the QP, we allow persons to go out of their homes on designated times and days based on the first letter of their family names?

Say, those starting with A or B are allowed to go out Monday mornings; C or D, Mon PM, etc.:

E or F – Tue AM
G or H – Tue PM
I or J – Wed AM
K or L – Wed PM
M or N – Thu AM
O or P – Thu PM
Q or R – Fri AM
S or T – Fri PM
U or V – Sat AM
W to Z – Sat PM

Thus, every person in Cebu City, except perhaps only for those who we should be ordering a complete stay at home (those whose immune systems are compromised, or 21 years and below, or senior citizens with a non-senior in the same household) would have a chance of getting out once a week, FOR A HALF DAY.

No more government expense for producing the QPs. Every person should just bring his or her identification card containing his or her name and photograph. Those without IDs could go to the barangay for a certification, which should contain his or her name and photograph. No more neighborhood quarrels on who received and who did not receive the QP. No more sharing of QP. And everybody has a chance to get out, just a half day each week.

What is the most number of people who would be legitimately out under this system? Let’s assume that the surnames of Cebu City residents are equally distributed over the alphabet (they are not, and perhaps a sample run over a random selection of the voter’s registration records could tell us whether the differences are significant so that we will not go through the days of the week in alphabetical manner). Let’s be generous and assume there are 1,000,000 people in Cebu City (the official Philippine Statistics Authority 2015 puts the number of residents at 922k, and if we factor in the growth rate there should be around 988k, but let’s just be generous). Since we are distributing this 1,000,000 into 12 groups, the theoretical maximum number of people outside would be 83k.

Yes, 83k, or about 6k less than the current system.

In other words, this system would result into about 6k less people outside. I think that number is already significant.

Tell me why this system would not work.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.